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Whirly's avatar

Thanks for another good piece.

I think there are risks to those offshore capex numbers.

2025 has repeatedly disappointed, eg: https://x.com/EnergyRealist25/status/1928741306597257309

Could this be at least part of the reason why those contracts expected last year haven't happened yet?

If oil stays under pressure, I would expect to see 2026 capex get pushed to the right again.

Is it odd that AIS is listing on the ASX? I can't imagine why a UK-based company servicing the global energy sector would do that.

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Swissie ⚔️'s avatar

Thanks for the write-up. I read the intro and thought "nah", that's too technical. But still continued reading. :-)

I think you overstate EBITDA. The co accounts under IFRS and leases are capitalized, so you won't see the actual lease expense in EBITDA as they appear under interest & depreciation. If you want to show this EBITDA, you'd need to include the lease liabilities in debt (anyway, that's a stupid way to look at valuation in my view, but each to their own).

In any case, if the growth materializes, EBITDA should still explode.

What's your view on mgmt? Tbh, you could say that the CEO's achievements are not exactly great.

Any sense for competition / competitive landscape? I don't understand this industry at all.

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